标签： North America

As the fourth quarter of 2025 unfolds, financial and real estate sectors are poised to dominate the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets, according to industry analysts. Philip Philippides, CEO of Mashreq Capital, highlighted the resilience of Dubai’s commercial real estate and the robust fundamentals of regional banks as key drivers of growth. In contrast, the materials sector is expected to underperform due to weak operational momentum. Sector rotation is anticipated to favor defensive and reform-linked plays, particularly in financial services and real estate. GCC markets remain relatively insulated from global trade tensions, with diversified export profiles and strategic trade relationships providing a buffer against escalating global conflicts. Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and synchronized global monetary easing are expected to positively impact GCC financial markets, easing financial conditions and stimulating consumption, investment, and asset valuations. GCC central banks, tied to the US dollar, will mirror Fed moves, transmitting rate cuts directly into local money markets. Lower rates are expected to boost consumer spending, SME investment, real estate activity, and tourism. In fixed income, sovereign and quasi-sovereign credits offer attractive carry and mid-duration opportunities, with expected spread compression and renewed global inflows enhancing credit profiles and reducing refinancing risk. Despite tight spreads and a strong year-to-date rally, low-single-digit returns are achievable in Q4, primarily driven by carry, with additional potential upside from anticipated Fed rate cuts. On the equity side, the oil price outlook is largely priced in, with Saudi Arabia’s underperformance reflecting subdued oil sentiment. However, double-digit earnings growth, attractive valuations, and ongoing diversification reforms across tourism, finance, and logistics sectors provide structural support to regional equity markets. Monetary easing will further enhance credit growth and equity performance. The divergence in performance across GCC markets is likely to persist, with Oman and Kuwait retaining upside potential due to their reform-driven narratives. Mena credit continues to offer value, with current index yields at approximately 5.5% providing a compelling carry proposition. The 5–10 year segment of sovereign and quasi-sovereign bonds from countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Morocco presents strong total return potential. GCC sukuk issuance is expected to remain robust in Q4, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading the charge. Investor appetite for sustainability-linked sukuk (SLS) and digital sukuk is poised to accelerate, driven by global ESG mandates and net-zero commitments. The ESG sukuk market is expected to surpass $50 billion outstanding in 2025, with GCC issuers playing a leading role. A sustained and disorderly decline in oil prices could materially impact government revenues, leading to reduced spending and weaker sentiment around IPOs and project awards. However, the base case remains for stable oil prices, with Saudi Arabia’s leadership emphasizing flexibility in fiscal policy and a continued focus on infrastructure, mega events, and gas output expansion.

Islamic Arab Insurance Company (Salama), a prominent Takaful provider in the UAE, has secured shareholder approval for a comprehensive capital restructuring plan aimed at restoring solvency and enhancing its financial standing. The decision, ratified during the General Assembly on October 16, 2025, includes a capital reduction to offset accumulated losses and the cancellation of treasury shares. Following final approval by the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA), Salama will issue up to Dh175 million in Mandatory Convertible Sukuk (MCS) through a special purpose vehicle. These sukuk will be allocated to a select group of strategic investors and will be mandatorily converted into new shares under agreed terms. This move is a pivotal step in Salama’s strategy to ensure regulatory compliance, stabilize its financial foundation, and support future growth. Mohamed Ali Bouabane, Group CEO of Salama, emphasized that the restructuring underscores the company’s commitment to strengthening its balance sheet and meeting regulatory capital requirements. He highlighted the unwavering support of shareholders and investors as a testament to their confidence in Salama’s long-term stability. The company’s financial performance in the first half of 2025 reflects this progress, with total equity rising to Dh351.84 million, a 5.2% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of Dh8.25 million. Takaful revenue also reached Dh515.36 million, showcasing disciplined operations and improved profitability. S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Salama’s long-term issuer credit and insurer financial strength rating at ‘BBB-’ with a Developing outlook, further validating its improving fundamentals and capital position.

US financial markets have been grappling with persistent volatility in recent weeks, driven by a mix of sector-specific concerns and broader economic uncertainties. The latest wave of anxiety emerged from the banking sector, as two regional lenders warned of potential losses due to alleged fraud. This follows earlier market turbulence sparked by renewed US-China tensions over tariffs, advanced technology, and access to rare earths. Additionally, the bankruptcies of car parts supplier First Brands and subprime car lender Tricolor in September further fueled investor unease. Despite these challenges, major US stock indexes have shown resilience, with the S&P 500 posting a 13% gain year-to-date, albeit lower than 2024’s performance. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, attributes this strength to improved corporate profits and the burgeoning enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). However, the market’s robust performance has paradoxically heightened concerns about overvaluation. Analysts have increasingly warned of a potential AI bubble, with major players investing heavily in the sector without clear long-term profitability. The Bank of England, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, and US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have all echoed these concerns, emphasizing the risk of a sharp market correction. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also highlighted complacency in its recent financial stability report, citing trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, and rising sovereign debt as key risks. Despite these warnings, many investors remain optimistic. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo have raised their year-end forecasts for the S&P 500, while David Lefkowitz of UBS Global Wealth Management anticipates the index to reach around 6,900 points, a 4% increase from current levels. Lefkowitz noted that while fraud allegations in the banking sector are concerning, overall default levels remain healthy, and AI demand shows no signs of waning. Stovall, however, cautioned that while the current bull market has been resilient, corrections and bear markets are inevitable, even if delayed. With sticky inflation and political uncertainties in Washington, the market rally remains ‘unloved,’ yet investors continue to navigate the complexities of an evolving economic landscape.