标签： Asia

The longstanding relationship between India and Bangladesh has reached a critical juncture, with the exile and death sentence of Bangladesh’s former leader Sheikh Hasina creating a complex diplomatic bind. Hasina, who ruled Bangladesh for 15 years, was a key ally for India, ensuring stability and connectivity in the region while aligning with Delhi’s interests over Beijing’s. However, her crackdown on student-led protests in 2024 led to her ousting and subsequent exile in India, where she has been granted asylum. A special tribunal in Bangladesh has sentenced her to death for crimes against humanity, but India has shown no inclination to extradite her, leaving the sentence unenforceable.

This situation has placed India in a precarious position. South Asia expert Michael Kugelman outlines four unappealing options for Delhi: extraditing Hasina, maintaining the status quo, pressuring her to remain silent, or finding a third country to take her in. Each option carries significant risks, particularly as Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, seeks to rebalance its foreign policy by reducing reliance on India and strengthening ties with China, Pakistan, and Turkey.

The India-Bangladesh relationship is deeply intertwined, with Bangladesh being India’s largest trading partner in South Asia and India serving as Bangladesh’s biggest export market in Asia. Over the past decade, India has provided billions in concessional credit, built cross-border infrastructure, and supplied energy and raw materials. Despite this economic interdependence, public sentiment in Bangladesh has soured, with a recent survey revealing that 75% of Bangladeshis view ties with China positively, compared to just 11% for India. Many blame Delhi for supporting Hasina’s increasingly authoritarian regime.

Experts argue that while political and diplomatic relations may fluctuate, economic and cultural ties often endure. However, the current situation poses significant challenges for India, particularly in managing border security and counterterrorism efforts along the 4,096 km shared border. The path forward, according to Avinash Paliwal of SOAS University of London, requires quiet and patient engagement with key stakeholders in Dhaka, including the armed forces.

The uncertainty surrounding Bangladesh’s upcoming elections adds another layer of complexity. If the interim government can conduct credible elections, it may open opportunities for India and Bangladesh to renegotiate their relationship. However, the Hasina factor remains a wildcard, with the potential to strain bilateral ties further. Ultimately, the next elected government in Bangladesh will need to balance core national interests against domestic politics and public sentiment, making the future of India-Bangladesh relations fragile at best.

In a significant move to bolster military cooperation, the United States and Saudi Arabia have inked a Strategic Defence Agreement (SDA), paving the way for expedited arms sales to the kingdom. The deal, signed by US President Donald Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, marks a pivotal shift in bilateral relations, with Saudi Arabia poised to gain access to cutting-edge US defence technology, including the coveted F-35 warplanes. The agreement, currently under detailed negotiation by US officials, is expected to position Saudi Arabia ahead of other Gulf states in acquiring sophisticated US weaponry. A former senior US official revealed that the Saudis have received Trump’s approval to secure the best in defence technology, despite Israeli lobbying efforts to limit the capabilities of the F-35s sold to the kingdom. Beyond the F-35, Saudi Arabia is exploring futuristic weapons systems like Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones, designed to operate alongside manned aircraft. The kingdom is also in talks with US firms, including Shield AI and General Atomics, for advanced drone acquisitions. The SDA extends beyond military technology, with separate deals anticipated in civilian nuclear technology and AI chips. Additionally, the US has designated Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally, a status that accelerates weapons transfers and deepens military training. This designation places Saudi Arabia alongside other Middle Eastern allies like Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington, his first since 2018, underscores Riyadh’s ambition to strengthen economic and security ties with the US. The crown prince’s diplomatic efforts, including navigating Israel’s war on Gaza and rekindling relations with Iran, have bolstered his international standing. However, Saudi Arabia seeks a more binding defence commitment from Washington, akin to the US-Japan mutual defence treaty. Talks on such a treaty are ongoing, contingent on Saudi Arabia’s recognition of Israel. The crown prince expressed a desire to join the Abraham Accords, emphasizing the need for a clear path toward a two-state solution. The agreement reflects Saudi Arabia’s strategic importance as the world’s largest oil exporter and the Arab world’s only G-20 economy, amid evolving regional dynamics.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has drawn sharp criticism for her recent comments suggesting potential military intervention in Taiwan, a move widely seen as an attempt to rally right-wing support and bolster her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which recently lost its parliamentary majority. Speaking in Japan’s parliament earlier this month, Takaichi framed such intervention as a response to a ‘survival-threatening situation,’ marking the first time an incumbent Japanese leader has publicly entertained such a possibility. However, her remarks directly contradict Article 9 of Japan’s pacifist Constitution, which renounces war and the use of force in international disputes. Chinese officials and analysts have condemned the comments as a dangerous echo of Japan’s militarist past. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning highlighted historical parallels, noting that Japan has previously used similar justifications for aggression, including the 1931 Manchurian Incident and the attack on Pearl Harbor. At the UN General Assembly, China’s Permanent Representative Fu Cong argued that Takaichi’s statements undermine the postwar international order and Japan’s commitment to peaceful development. Domestically, Takaichi’s strategy appears aimed at shoring up support among right-wing factions and voters, even as her government faces significant challenges. Critics, including Japanese lawmakers and social media influencers, have warned against escalating tensions with China, emphasizing the potential economic fallout. In response to Tokyo’s refusal to retract Takaichi’s remarks, China has suspended imports of Japanese aquatic products, citing safety concerns and public sentiment. Mao reiterated that Japan would bear full responsibility for any consequences of its actions.