标签： Asia

Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC), a secessionist faction with backing from the United Arab Emirates, has declared plans to conduct a referendum on independence within two years, escalating tensions with Saudi Arabia and its allied Yemeni government forces. The announcement comes amid intensified military confrontations that have exposed deepening fractures between the Gulf powerhouses.

STC President Aidaros Alzubidi proclaimed the commencement of a transitional period in a televised address Friday, urging international mediation for north-south dialogue while threatening immediate independence declaration if southern territories face further military aggression. “This constitutional declaration shall be considered immediately and directly effective if the people of the south, their land, or their forces are subjected to any military attacks,” Alzubidi warned.

The political maneuver coincides with lethal battlefield exchanges across southern Yemen. Saudi airstrikes targeted STC positions in Hadhramaut province Friday, resulting in 29 separatist fatalities according to STC officials. These operations supported government-aligned National Shield forces attempting to reclaim territory lost to the separatists in December.

The conflict reveals deteriorating Saudi-Emirati coordination in Yemen, where both nations initially intervened against Houthi rebels a decade ago. Recent divergences extend beyond Yemen to include contrasting approaches toward Israel’s Gaza operations and Syrian normalization efforts. Notably, the UAE abstained from condemning Israel’s recognition of Somaliland independence—another breakaway region with Abu Dhabi ties—potentially establishing precedent for the STC’s self-determination push.

Yemen’s internationally recognized government, backed by Riyadh, maintains opposition to southern secession. Hadhramaut Governor Salem al-Khanbashi echoed calls for peaceful dialogue Friday, stating: “We renew the emphasis on the justice of the southern cause, while rejecting the path of military control and confrontation.” The STC nevertheless asserts their constitutional declaration aligns with international law, as spokesperson Anwar al-Tamimi emphasized to Al Jazeera.

Former US President Donald Trump has issued a direct threat of military intervention against Iran, warning that American forces stand ready to “rescue” Iranian citizens if their government continues its violent suppression of ongoing protests. The declaration came via Trump’s TruthSocial platform, where he stated: “If Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go.

The protests have emerged in response to a severe economic crisis that has seen Iran’s currency effectively collapse under the weight of US sanctions. Current exchange rates show one US dollar equivalent to over 42,000 Iranian Rial (IRR), with the unofficial daily currency, the Toman (equivalent to 10 IRR), driving basic living costs to unsustainable levels. A traditional meal now costs approximately 600 Toman, highlighting the economic pressure on citizens.

Iran’s leadership responded swiftly to Trump’s threats. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned on social media platform X that US intervention “corresponds to chaos in the entire region and the destruction of US interests,” likely referencing Iran’s capability to target US military bases in the region. Larijani further cautioned American citizens to “take care of their own soldiers,” accusing Trump of initiating “adventurism.”

The exchange occurs against the backdrop of recent meetings between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, where Iran’s nuclear program featured prominently on their agenda. Trump claimed that US and Israeli actions had previously “obliterated” Iranian nuclear sites, though Iran disputes this assertion. The former president added that if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear capabilities, “we’re going to have to knock them down… We’ll knock the hell out of them,” while leaving open the possibility of diplomatic resolution.

Netanyahu, during his US visit, continued his longstanding advocacy for military action against Iran, alleging Tehran’s involvement in “exporting terrorism” throughout the Middle East and even to Venezuela. His comments aligned with the Trump administration’s concurrent threats against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, including multiple strikes on vessels in the Caribbean Sea that the US claims are drug boats originating from Venezuela.

In a scathing indictment of current Israeli leadership, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has characterized settler violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank as a government-enabled campaign amounting to “violent, murderous war.” Writing in Haaretz newspaper, Olmert rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s characterization of the violence as the work of marginalized youth, instead describing it as a systematic effort toward “ethnic cleansing and mass expulsion.”

The timing of Olmert’s article follows Netanyahu’s recent attempt to downplay the surge in attacks amid increasing international scrutiny, particularly from the United States. According to UN data, October witnessed over 260 settler attacks—the highest monthly tally since record-keeping began in 2006—with more than 3,200 Palestinians forcibly displaced as a result.

Olmert, who himself authorized settlement expansion during his 2006-2009 premiership, asserted that armed settler groups operate with near-total impunity, often under the direct observation of Israeli security forces. He identified the government’s decision to halt administrative detention for Jewish suspects as a pivotal moment that emboldened violent actors, creating what he called a “comprehensive, coordinated and well-financed campaign” supported by political leaders and local authorities.

The former leader specifically rejected the notion that violence stems from fringe elements, stating: “This isn’t the ‘hilltop youth’ or a small group of delinquents… it’s a military, terrorist, violent militia that murders, torches, beats, shoots, and in a systematic, planned and organised manner destroys everything in the territories that isn’t Jewish.”

Olmert further warned of escalating internal political strife, accusing far-right ministers of creating conditions conducive to political assassination. He drew parallels between Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s rhetoric toward Supreme Court President Isaac Amit and the inflammatory language that preceded the 1995 murder of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Despite Smotrich’s aides claiming his “run him over” comment was metaphorical, Olmert dismissed this as disingenuous, calling it “an invitation to murder, to physical elimination.”

The article portrays a government systematically dismantling institutional checks through intimidation of judicial figures, with Olmert concluding that current leadership has abandoned the rule of law in favor of violent expansionism.

A seismic shift in Horn of Africa geopolitics unfolded as Israel’s unilateral recognition of Somaliland’s independence triggered widespread protests and heightened security alerts across the region. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s December announcement formally acknowledging Somaliland’s sovereignty has drawn immediate condemnation from Somalia and raised alarms among international observers.

The strategic significance of this move cannot be overstated. Somaliland occupies critical coastline along the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea maritime corridors that facilitate approximately 30% of global trade. This positioning has transformed the territory into a geopolitical prize amid escalating regional competitions.

Security analysts warn that Israel’s endorsement has effectively inserted Somaliland into Middle Eastern power rivalries. Samira Gaid, a Horn of Africa security specialist, notes the development positions Somaliland within a broader contest involving Israel versus Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf states—a dangerous geopolitical realignment.

The recognition has exposed Somaliland’s internal vulnerabilities. Former Somali intelligence chief Fahad Yasin revealed that Hargeisa exercises limited control over extensive territories, particularly in northeastern regions and Awdal province where separatist movements have gained momentum. These areas have witnessed violent clashes and declarations of alternative regional states aligned with Somalia’s federal government.

Regional armed groups including al-Shabab and Yemen’s Houthi movement have declared Israeli presence in Somaliland legitimate military targets. Abdul Malik al-Houthi specifically warned that any Israeli facilities would face immediate retaliation, potentially transforming the strategic waterways into conflict zones.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud identified three primary motivations behind Israel’s move: potential Somaliland accession to the Abraham Accords, relocation of Palestinians from Gaza, and establishment of an Israeli military base along the Gulf of Aden. This latter objective particularly unsettles Red Sea states that perceive Israeli proximity as a national security threat.

The recognition faces procedural challenges within Israel itself. Opposition leader Yair Lapid revealed that Netanyahu’s decision bypassed both government and security cabinet approval, raising questions about its legal validity under Israeli domestic governance procedures.

International law experts note the move contravenes United Nations and African Union charters emphasizing respect for member states’ sovereignty and territorial integrity. This unilateral action may establish a destabilizing precedent for separatist movements across conflict-prone regions, potentially encouraging similar claims in Ethiopia and other nations facing internal self-determination disputes.

The development represents the latest manifestation of Middle Eastern powers projecting their rivalries into the Horn of Africa through port development, military bases, financial leverage, and political patronage networks—with Somaliland now becoming an unexpected flashpoint in this expanding strategic competition.