Australia stands poised to achieve a significant demographic landmark by mid-2024, with official projections indicating the national population will exceed 28 million for the first time. This development emerges against a backdrop of concerning demographic trends, including record-low birth rates and substantially reduced migration levels.
The Centre for Population’s latest data reveals Australia’s growth rate has declined to 1.3 percent, marking the slowest pace in the nation’s modern history. This represents a notable decrease from the previous year’s 1.5 percent growth rate. The demographic slowdown stems from two primary factors: a dramatic reduction in net overseas migration and a continuing decline in fertility rates.
Migration patterns have shifted significantly since the post-pandemic reopening, with net overseas migration projected to fall to approximately 260,000 by 2026—less than half the arrivals recorded during the 2022-2023 financial year. This substantial decrease primarily results from fewer temporary migrants entering on student and visitor visas. Nick Latimer, Executive Director of the Centre for Population, acknowledged the ongoing challenges in migration forecasting following the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that ‘significant uncertainty remains’ despite some aspects returning to conventional patterns.
Concurrently, Australia’s fertility rate continues its downward trajectory, expected to reach a historic low of 1.42 children per woman—well below the replacement rate of 2.1 that has remained unattained for nearly five decades. Treasurer Jim Chalmers recognized this trend as part of a broader international pattern, while highlighting government initiatives designed to support families, including enhancements to early education systems and expanded paid parental leave provisions.
Regional variations in population growth present another dimension to Australia’s demographic landscape. Western Australia anticipates the highest growth rate at 1.8 percent, while Tasmania projects minimal growth at just 0.1 percent. Major urban centers Sydney and Melbourne are both forecast to reach 8 million residents by 2050.
Offsetting these demographic challenges, Australians are experiencing increased life expectancy, with women projected to live until 87.1 years and men until 83.4 years by 2035-2036. This aging population presents both budgetary pressures and unique advantages. Treasurer Chalmers identified population aging as one of five major forces reshaping Australia’s economy, noting increased demand for healthcare and aged care services while emphasizing that Australia’s working-age population will continue growing even as 80 percent of OECD countries face declines by the mid-2060s.