博客

The U.S.-China trade war has had unexpected repercussions in Argentina, where the country’s soy crushing industry is facing significant challenges despite record-high soybean exports. According to recent reports, Argentina’s soybean sales to China have surged to a six-year high, driven by Beijing’s search for alternatives to U.S. soybeans. However, this export boom has led to a shortage of raw beans for local processors, causing idle capacity in crushing facilities to rise to 31% in July, with further increases since then. Gustavo Idigoras, president of the CIARA-CEC grain exporters and processors chamber, expressed concern over the situation, stating that the trade war has harmed Argentina by reducing jobs and export value. He also noted that the surplus of soybeans in the U.S. has intensified competition for Argentine soymeal in Southeast Asia. While exports of unprocessed soybeans from the 2024/25 harvest have reached 8.81 million metric tons, nearly double the previous season, the future of Argentina’s soybean exports remains uncertain, hinging on the outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations. All eyes are on November, when the current trade waiver between the two nations expires.

In a significant development for U.S.-India trade relations, India’s Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran has expressed optimism that the U.S. may soon eliminate the punitive 25% import tariff on Indian goods and reduce reciprocal tariffs to 10-15%. Speaking at an event in Kolkata on Thursday, Nageswaran stated, ‘My personal confidence is that in the next couple of months, if not earlier, we will see a resolution to at least the extra penal tariff of 25%.’ He further suggested that the reciprocal tariff of 25% could also be lowered to levels previously anticipated between 10% and 15%. This announcement follows ‘positive’ and ‘forward-looking’ trade discussions between the two nations earlier this week. The talks aimed to address tensions that escalated after former U.S. President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil, doubling overall tariffs to 50% in August. Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently held a phone conversation, during which Trump thanked Modi for his efforts in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While no specific agreements were disclosed, the call signaled a potential thaw in bilateral relations, which had been strained in recent months. Indian stock markets responded positively to Nageswaran’s comments, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index reaching one-week highs and its highest close since July 9.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to implement its first interest rate cut of 2025 sent ripples through global markets, sparking a mix of reactions across financial sectors. While the initial announcement led to a stumble in U.S. markets, stock futures rebounded sharply ahead of Thursday’s trading session as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious approach to further easing. The dollar and Treasury yields experienced significant fluctuations, with the greenback hitting a multi-year low before recovering. Powell emphasized a risk-management strategy, noting that while the median projection among Fed policymakers suggests two additional cuts this year and one in 2026, a third of officials oppose further easing in 2025, and nearly half anticipate only one more cut or none at all. This divergence has left markets uncertain, with Fed futures pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in October and only 44 basis points of easing for the remainder of the year. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both dipped on Wednesday, partly due to Nvidia’s 3% decline following reports of Chinese regulators urging domestic tech firms to halt purchases of Nvidia’s AI chips. However, optimism returned as Chinese officials expressed willingness to engage in dialogue, and tech stocks like Oracle and Lyft surged on positive news. Meanwhile, global central banks are also in focus, with the Bank of Canada cutting rates as expected and the Bank of England’s decision on quantitative tightening drawing attention. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates but hint at future hikes, adding to the complexity of global monetary policy. As markets brace for further volatility, the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle stands in contrast to other central banks winding down their easing measures, signaling potential turbulence ahead.

In a significant move, Taiwan’s central bank has decided to maintain its benchmark discount rate at 2% during its quarterly meeting, aligning with market expectations. The decision, made unanimously, reflects the bank’s cautious optimism about the island’s economic trajectory. Governor Yang Chin-long highlighted the unique nature of this year’s economic growth, driven largely by booming exports, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which has been pivotal in powering the global AI boom. Companies like Nvidia have benefited immensely from Taiwan’s advanced chip production, bolstering the local economy. However, Yang expressed concerns over the potential adverse effects of U.S. tariffs, which could necessitate adjustments in monetary policy. The central bank has revised its 2025 economic growth forecast upward to 4.55%, up from 3.05% in June, but anticipates a slowdown to 2.68% in the following year. Additionally, the bank has trimmed its consumer price index forecast for this year to 1.75%, with inflation expected to ease further to 1.66% next year. The bank remains vigilant, closely monitoring developments in U.S. tariffs and geopolitical risks, which could significantly impact Taiwan’s competitive edge. This rate decision follows the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, the first since December, amid concerns over rising unemployment.