Meteorological authorities warn that eastern and southern regions of China face heightened drought risks throughout winter and into spring 2026 due to persistent La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific. While climate experts confirm the unlikely development of a full-scale La Nina event, the existing oceanic cooling pattern continues to disrupt normal precipitation distribution across affected regions.
The National Climate Center’s monitoring data indicates that La Nina conditions became established in October 2025, characterized by unusually cool sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. According to Zhang Daquan, Deputy Director of the center’s climate prediction division, meteorologists utilize the Nino 3.4 index as the standard measurement for such phenomena, with values dropping below -0.5°C indicating La Nina conditions.
Climate scientists emphasize the critical distinction between La Nina conditions and official La Nina events. The latter requires the Nino 3.4 index to remain below the -0.5°C threshold for five consecutive months—a duration not expected in the current scenario. Forecast models project the cooling pattern will persist for two to three months before transitioning toward neutral conditions around February or March 2026.
The meteorological mechanism involves La Nina generating cyclonic circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. This atmospheric configuration produces prevailing northeasterly winds that impede moisture transport from tropical regions—China’s primary winter vapor source. Consequently, precipitation deficits are anticipated across eastern and southern provinces.
Contrary to public assumptions linking La Nina with severe winter cold, temperature projections indicate near-average or slightly above-average winter temperatures nationwide. Zhang clarified that multiple factors beyond La Nina—including Arctic sea ice coverage, Eurasian snow accumulation, and natural atmospheric variability—collectively influence China’s seasonal climate patterns.
The National Climate Center anticipates increased temperature volatility throughout winter, featuring more pronounced alternations between cold spells and warm periods. This variability occurs alongside the predicted precipitation reduction, creating complex weather challenges for agricultural and water resource management sectors.