China’s demographic landscape continues its concerning downward spiral, with official data revealing a fourth consecutive year of population decline in 2025. The National Bureau of Statistics reported the population dropped by 3.39 million to settle at approximately 1.4 billion by year’s end, representing an accelerated decline compared to previous years.
The critical birth rate metric plummeted to a historic low of 5.63 per 1,000 people—the lowest recording since the establishment of the People’s Republic in 1949. Simultaneously, the mortality rate climbed to 8.04 per 1,000 people, reaching heights not seen since 1968. This widening gap between births and deaths underscores the severity of China’s demographic challenge.
Confronted with both an aging citizenry and economic stagnation, Chinese authorities have implemented numerous policy measures to reverse this trend. The government’s approach has evolved significantly from the 2016 abolition of the notorious one-child policy to the current three-child policy introduced in 2021. More recent interventions include direct financial incentives, offering parents 3,600 yuan annually for each child under three years old, alongside provincial initiatives featuring cash bonuses and extended parental leave provisions.
However, certain policies have generated public controversy, particularly a new 13% taxation on contraceptive products including condoms and birth control medications. Health advocates have raised concerns that this measure might inadvertently increase unintended pregnancies and potentially affect HIV transmission rates.
China’s fertility rate remains among the world’s lowest at approximately one child per woman—significantly below the 2.1 replacement level needed for population stability. This pattern mirrors demographic trends seen in other East Asian economies including South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan.
Compounding the problem, China ranks as one of the most financially demanding countries for child-rearing according to the YuWa Population Research Institute’s 2024 analysis. Beyond economic considerations, cultural shifts are influencing reproductive decisions, with many young Chinese citing lifestyle preferences and personal freedom as factors in their choice to remain childless.
United Nations demographic projections indicate China’s population could diminish by more than half before 2100. This demographic contraction poses substantial economic threats, including workforce reduction, weakened consumer markets, and mounting pressure on pension systems. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has warned about the sustainability of retirement funds as the elderly population grows increasingly dependent on state support.