For nearly a decade, Canada stood as the most sought-after study destination for millions of middle-class Indian students seeking international education and a path to permanent residency. Today, that long-standing trend has collapsed into a sharp, unprecedented decline, reshaping the global landscape of international student mobility. At overseas education consultancies across India’s capital New Delhi, where shelves once overflowed with Canadian university brochures, prospective students and their parents now pore over materials from Italian, German, and Australian institutions instead. What was once India’s top study abroad pick has been all but crossed off most application lists.\n\nShobhit Anand, who runs a New Delhi-based consultancy that supports students through admissions and visa processes, says that before 2023, the vast majority of his client inquiries were for Canadian programs. Today, his firm has recorded an almost 80% drop in Canadian study applications. “People don’t want to apply to Canada anymore. We are also seeing a very high visa rejection rate,” Anand explained. The scale of the shift is confirmed by a recent report from Canada’s auditor general, submitted to the country’s parliament last month: as of September 2025, Indian students make up just 8.1% of Canada’s new incoming international student population, down from a dominant 51.6% just two years earlier in 2023.\n\nMultiple overlapping factors have driven this sudden decline. Canada’s sweeping new policy changes, spiking living costs, and a 2023 diplomatic crisis that frayed bilateral ties (which have since partially recovered) have all combined to deter Indian applicants. For years, Canada’s appeal rested on a predictable, accessible pathway to migration: students could enroll in a two to three-year vocational program at a private college, find work post-graduation, and apply for permanent residency in roughly five years, a timeline that worked for generations of Indian students until 2023.\n\nThe turning point came in early 2024, when Ottawa introduced a two-year cap on international student admissions for undergraduate and diploma programs, limiting annual study permits to roughly 350,000 while leaving postgraduate programs unaffected. The policy was explicitly designed to curb over-reliance on student pathways for migration, which was dominated by Indian applicants. Beyond admission caps, Canada doubled the required Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC), the proof of funds required for student visas, from C$10,000 to more than C$20,000 in 2024. At the same time, national study permit rejection rates climbed from 38% in 2023 to 52% in 2024, according to data from ICEF Monitor, an organization tracking global student mobility.\n\n“For many families, securing that amount is difficult – and with the risk of visa rejection, they hesitate,” said Sushil Sukhwani, of Edwise Overseas Education consultancy. “That became a major barrier.” The once-popular Student Direct Stream (SDS), a fast-track visa processing scheme widely used by Indian applicants, was scrapped entirely by the end of 2024 after officials flagged widespread abuse, including fraudulent applications and non-genuine enrollment. The auditor general’s report noted that nearly all approved SDS applications came from India, and the scheme was “being targeted by non-genuine students seeking entry to Canada.” Tighter scrutiny of all Indian applications followed the program’s cancellation.\n\nEconomic conditions have added another layer of risk for prospective students. Rents have skyrocketed across major Canadian cities, and entry-level jobs have grown increasingly scarce as thousands of international students graduate each year. During the post-pandemic international student boom, many small private colleges expanded rapidly to capture revenue, often offering low-quality academic programs that left graduates ill-prepared for the Canadian job market. Anand, the Delhi-based consultant, recalled one former client, a 24-year-old student who moved to Canada two years ago: after graduating, the young man could only find unstable part-time work and could not cover his living expenses, eventually returning to India to job search. His story is far from unique.\n\nDeep Saini, president of Canada’s prestigious McGill University, points out that the decline has not been evenly felt. Indian students, he explained, generally fall into two groups: one academically driven group that applies to top global universities for quality education, and a second that views study as primarily a pathway to migration, often enrolling in small, low-cost private colleges. Canada’s restrictions targeted the second group, leaving elite institutions largely unaffected. McGill saw only a small dip in Indian applications after 2023, which Saini calls “collateral damage” from broader policy changes and diplomatic tensions. Today, Indian student numbers at the university are already returning to pre-decline levels.\n\nIn 2025, bilateral relations between India and Canada have started to improve: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited India earlier this year, leading a delegation of top Canadian university officials to rebuild educational ties, launch new partnerships and expand scholarship opportunities. But even with warming relations, the damage to Canada’s reputation as a accessible study destination for Indian students has been profound.\n\nFor 17-year-old prospective student Tanishq Khurana, who once planned to apply to Canada, the decision to study there is no longer a given. Khurana, who wants to pursue a bachelor’s degree in clinical psychology, paused his application after learning about rising visa rejections and admission caps. He ultimately decided to reapply, drawn by the fact that his sister and multiple cousins already live in Canada, and the country still offers a three-year post-graduation work permit that remains a major draw. But for many other students, the calculation has shifted entirely: what was once a guaranteed pathway to a new life abroad is now a risky bet. The once-unchallenged promise of a Canadian study permit – steady work, permanent residency, and a secure future overseas – no longer holds for most aspiring Indian students.
