China has documented its fourth successive annual population contraction in 2025, cementing a concerning demographic trajectory that poses substantial challenges to economic vitality and social welfare frameworks. Official statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveal a stark imbalance: with 7.92 million births overshadowed by 11.31 million deaths, the nation experienced a net reduction of 3.39 million people, settling the year-end population at approximately 1.405 billion.
This persistent downturn reflects deeper systemic issues, including widespread employment instability among youth and diminishing marriage rates, which collectively undermine China’s long-term growth potential. The contracting workforce signals impending strains on pension systems and escalating healthcare expenditures associated with an aging citizenry.
Critical analysis of workforce demographics shows the core working-age population (16-59 years) now constitutes 60.6% of the total populace, down from 60.9% in the previous year. This segment witnessed an annual decrease of 6.62 million individuals, highlighting tightening labor conditions despite advancements in educational attainment and productivity metrics.
NBS officials, including Wang Pingping, Director of Population and Employment Statistics, emphasize qualitative improvements within the demographic profile. With 851 million people in the 16-59 cohort and 323 million aged 60 or above, China benefits from significant human capital. Wang notes that many seniors maintain robust health and economic activity, while average educational duration reaches 11.3 years and life expectancy climbs to 79 years. The nation’s R&D personnel now exceed 10.8 million, indicating a strategic pivot from labor quantity to expertise quality.
Regional disparities further illustrate demographic fragmentation. Northeastern provinces like Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Jilin report severe natural population declines, exacerbated by outward migration and aging residents. Conversely, southern regions and less-developed western areas, including Guangdong, Tibet, and Xinjiang, demonstrate relative resilience through higher birth rates and younger demographic structures.
Underpinning these trends are evolving social attitudes. Marriage registrations briefly rebounded by 8.5% in early 2025 following policy interventions, yet analysts consider this temporary amid enduring economic pressures. A shrinking marriage-age population—down by over 60 million in a decade—coupled with pronounced gender imbalances and financial barriers like betrothal gifts and housing costs, continue to discourage family formation. These dynamics fuel the proliferation of ‘tang ping’ (lying flat) and ‘bai lan’ (let it rot) lifestyles among disenchanted youth.
Despite these challenges, China retains formidable demographic advantages, including an urban population of 954 million (67.9% urbanization rate) and a consumer market surpassing the combined populations of developed nations. Policy measures expanding childcare support and educational access aim to mitigate demographic headwinds, though structural economic transformations appear inevitable.