标签： Asia

Prashant Kishor, once India’s most sought-after political strategist, faced a stark reality when his newly formed party, Jan Suraaj (People’s Good Governance), failed to secure a single seat in the Bihar state elections. Despite his extensive two-year grassroots campaign and a well-organized effort to field candidates across all 243 seats, Jan Suraaj garnered only a fraction of the votes, while the BJP-led alliance swept to power. Kishor’s transition from a behind-the-scenes strategist to a frontline political leader proved challenging, as his party struggled to convert media attention into electoral success. Political analysts attribute this failure to the lack of a deep-rooted social base and the absence of a mass movement or crisis that typically propels new parties to relevance. Unlike successful new parties such as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which emerged from a strong anti-corruption movement, Jan Suraaj was perceived as a strategic project rather than an organic political force. Kishor’s decision not to contest a seat himself further raised doubts about his commitment. The Bihar elections underscored a critical lesson in Indian politics: media hype and visibility alone cannot substitute for ground strength and a loyal constituency. However, some experts believe that if Jan Suraaj can sustain its grassroots presence and cultivate local leadership, it may gradually build influence in Bihar’s evolving political landscape.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is set to embark on a high-stakes visit to Washington, aiming to secure a landmark defense agreement that surpasses Qatar’s recent deals. His ambitious agenda includes acquiring advanced AI chips, AI-powered drones, and potentially positioning American nuclear weapons on Saudi soil. This visit underscores MBS’s growing confidence as a regional leader, having navigated intense geopolitical pressures, including calls to normalize ties with Israel amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza and maintaining neutrality during the Israel-Iran tensions earlier this year.

On the other side of the negotiating table is President Donald Trump, who appears willing to leverage America’s cutting-edge nuclear and AI technologies to forge a robust partnership with Saudi Arabia. Analysts suggest that Trump’s focus on boosting foreign sales aligns with Saudi Arabia’s financial capacity to invest heavily in defense and technology, despite global economic uncertainties.

MBS’s visit marks a departure from traditional Middle Eastern leaders’ approaches to Washington. Unlike past deals that primarily benefited American defense contractors like Boeing and Lockheed Martin, MBS’s sophisticated wishlist reflects Saudi Arabia’s vision of a modern, forward-thinking kingdom. Ayham Kamel, Middle East president at Edelman Public and Government Affairs, notes that MBS seeks to strengthen long-term US-Saudi cooperation, emphasizing a two-way flow of technology and trade.

A key area of focus is Saudi Arabia’s push for inclusion under the US nuclear umbrella, a move that would elevate its strategic position in the region. This follows a recent defense pact with Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed Muslim state, which has raised eyebrows in Washington. Experts suggest that extending US nuclear protection to Saudi Arabia could serve as a counterbalance to Pakistan’s influence and enhance Riyadh’s regional standing.

However, the negotiations are not without challenges. The Trump administration’s approval of an Israeli attack on Qatar in 2023 has undermined the US’s role as a regional security guarantor, prompting Saudi Arabia to seek more credible and binding defense arrangements. Riyadh is wary of symbolic gestures and is pushing for concrete commitments, including the potential deployment of US nuclear weapons systems on its soil.

In addition to defense, Saudi Arabia is eyeing significant advancements in AI and nuclear energy. The kingdom aims to enrich uranium domestically, a move that aligns with its economic ambitions and national pride. While the US has historically opposed uranium enrichment in the region, experts speculate that Trump may offer concessions in exchange for lucrative business deals with American companies like Westinghouse and Bechtel.

MBS’s visit also highlights Saudi Arabia’s efforts to decouple its bilateral agreements with the US from the contentious issue of normalizing ties with Israel. Despite Trump’s claims that Riyadh will establish diplomatic relations with Israel by year-end, Saudi officials remain reluctant, insisting on progress toward an independent Palestinian state.

As MBS arrives in Washington with a delegation of 1,000 officials, the visit is poised to consolidate a raft of deals announced during Trump’s trip to the Gulf in May, including $142 billion in defense sales. Potential agreements on F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and AI technologies are on the table, though concerns about maintaining Israel’s military edge and preventing Chinese access to US technology persist.

This visit underscores Saudi Arabia’s strategic pivot to leverage its relationship with the US to bolster its defense capabilities, technological advancements, and regional influence, while navigating the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

In a recent development, former U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that he played a pivotal role in de-escalating hostilities between Cambodia and Thailand. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, Trump declared, ‘I stopped a war just today.’ He attributed this achievement to his strategic use of economic leverage, including the threat of imposing steep tariffs, which he believes enhances U.S. diplomatic influence. Trump revealed that he had engaged in phone conversations with the prime ministers of both nations, stating, ‘They’re doing great. They were not doing great,’ and expressed confidence that the situation would stabilize. The conflict, which erupted in late July over territorial disputes along the border, resulted in significant casualties, including dozens of soldiers and civilians. Trump’s intervention reportedly led to a temporary ceasefire, which was further solidified during an Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Malaysia last month. However, tensions flared again recently when Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet reported that a villager was killed in a border skirmish. The Thai military countered by alleging that Cambodian soldiers initiated the violence. The historical enmity between the two nations, rooted in centuries-old territorial claims, remains unresolved, with the ceasefire failing to address the underlying border disputes.

China has issued a series of forceful warnings to Japan following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s controversial remarks regarding potential military intervention in Taiwan Strait affairs. The Chinese government has emphasized that any such interference would result in severe consequences for Japan. These warnings were delivered through multiple diplomatic channels, including meetings between Chinese and Japanese officials.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has issued a strong appeal to Tunisia’s judiciary to overturn the convictions of 37 individuals accused of conspiring to destabilize the nation. The case, widely referred to as the ‘Conspiracy Against State Security,’ is set for a hearing at the Tunis Court of Appeals on Monday. HRW has condemned the proceedings as part of a broader ‘crackdown on dissent’ in the country. In a statement released on Friday, HRW revealed that it had reviewed court documents and found the charges to be baseless, lacking credible evidence. The organization urged the court to reverse the convictions and release all detainees. Bassam Khawaja, HRW’s deputy Middle East and North Africa director, criticized the case as a ‘masquerade,’ highlighting the absence of fair trial guarantees and calling for an end to the ‘judicial farce.’ The defendants, including activists, lawyers, political opponents, and researchers, were sentenced in April to prison terms ranging from four to 66 years. HRW has pointed out numerous irregularities in the case, such as convictions after only three hearings, sentencing in absentia, and inadequate notice of appeal hearings. Some defendants, including opposition leader Jaouhar Ben Mbarek, have initiated hunger strikes to protest their conditions and alleged mistreatment. Ben Mbarek’s lawyer and sister, Dalila Ben Mbarek Msaddek, has raised concerns about his health and reported physical abuse in prison. Other opposition figures, including Rached Ghannouchi, have joined the hunger strike. HRW has noted a significant escalation in the suppression of dissent since President Kais Saied assumed control of state institutions in July 2021. Arbitrary arrests and detentions have surged, undermining judicial independence and fair trial rights. Experts have highlighted violations such as the use of videoconferencing for trials, prolonged pretrial detentions, and retaliation against defense lawyers. HRW has called on Tunisia’s international partners to condemn these injustices and pressure authorities to ensure fair trials and uphold the rule of law.

Pakistan’s parliament has passed a controversial constitutional amendment granting Field Marshal Asim Munir, the country’s army chief since November 2022, expanded powers, lifetime immunity from arrest and prosecution, and oversight of the navy and air force. The 27th constitutional amendment, enacted on Thursday, also introduces significant changes to the judiciary, including the creation of a new Federal Constitutional Court (FCC) to handle constitutional matters. Critics argue the move consolidates military influence and undermines civilian governance, while supporters claim it brings clarity to the military command structure and addresses court backlogs. The amendment has sparked resignations from Supreme Court justices, who decry the erosion of judicial independence. Analysts warn the changes signal a shift towards authoritarianism, with the military’s role in Pakistan’s politics becoming increasingly dominant.